The Turkish Lira & Erdogan’s Iron Fist / FOREX Predictions / Episode 03
Show Description

In this short episode, Brett and Viewer K briefly discuss the Turkish Lira versus the US Dollar and where their remote viewing data is forecasting future moves. At the top of the episode, K also answers one of our listeners questions regarding his two favorite FOREX pairs. To wrap the show up, Brett notes a rather pertinent news story regarding new economic powers that have been handed to President Erdogan, which may shed some light and offer insight into the team’s RV market forecast.

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This past weekend K and I recorded a little bit more than the Bitcoin prediction. We also looked at the US dollar versus the Lira. So here is that part of the episode. Enjoy.

From here we’re going to make a shift over to the FOREX, and before we get into the Lira specifically, we had one of our listeners ask the question, K what are your two favorite FOREX pairs. And so I thought I would give you an opportunity to answer that real quick.

00:41 Well, I generally was a fan of the Auzzy Dollar versus the Yen, because it doesn’t have the volumes that the Euro and everything else does. You have a better chance at having distortions that you can actually make some decent money off of from time to time. The Japanese central bank is no stranger to pushing their weight around in the market, which has made for a lot of fun times in the past, and I’m sure will continue to provide great opportunities in the future. The other one, if Trump is doing what Trump does best, I love playing the Mexican peso, just like on election night.

Brett: There’s certainly more recommendations that will come up in the future too, as we look at a number of FOREX pairs, which for this episode we looked at the USD against the Turkish Lira. So, K why don’t you give us a run down on our time-horizons with the forecast looks like, and then I’ll go over a synopsis of the news, and what’s happening in that part of the world.

01:55 K: The Lira is a very interesting currency for a number of reasons. Turkey is a NATO country. There in the treaty. We have an airbase at Incirlic, which we use as a staging grounds for attacks in Iraq and Syria, but we don’t really get along. Turkey was trying to get into the EU for quite awhile, but their continued move towards oppression of media and move towards autocracy kind of killed that. So, Erdogan is recasting himself, some people would say, as a new sultan of the Ottoman Empire, but either way you cut it, his antics have certainly created a lot of volatility in the currency, and volatility loves to be traded. For that reason, and the continued shifting alliances that have been going back and forth, we decided to take a look to see if there was going to be a big sea change. So, we’ve plotted out 90 days, is the first thing we’ve looked at, because there’s a lot of things in the near-term that could be happening with it, with the US pullout in Syria, and Erdogan threatening to come across the border, so how is that going to shake-out.

03:23 As you would expect, we see some continued depreciation of the Lira versus the Dollar, so if you’re trading USDTRY, I’m going to go long. Now, because of the nature of the beast, if you have a spike up you’re going to have a big retracement back down, not to the level it was preceding, but everyone can recognize a spike, what was it August 12th there was a huge one based on a few announcement that were just glorious if you were able to trade them. Unfortunately, a lot of brokerages saw this happening and had locked the currency down so you couldn’t. But over the next 90 days we do see a continued decay of the Lira versus the Dollar, but there will be a period of pull-back and stagnation, and then another uptrend, some probably news headline before stagnation, a little bit of decay, and then another news headline coming up. So, we see maybe three major news events that pushing things coming up, maybe four if some other retracement is worthy of action. So, who knows what those could be, but it looks like there’s plenty of price action to trade on the long side and more if you could take advantage of retracements coming up.

04:49 Brett: I think one of the potential news stories to be paying attention to that’s coming out of Turkey, just as recently as January 25th, is the new economic powers that the Turkish government just gave Erdogan. It occurred on the same day that the central bank turned down his request, his demand almost, to cut interest rates from this sky high level of 24%, but his parliament gave him these new emergency powers to act in any way that he sees fit for what he considers negative development. Essentially, that’s keys to the kingdom as far as his direct control over the Turkish economy and the Lira. So, we know that he’s prone to some rather eccentric notions that if this leads to abuse, kind of similar to what happened last year in August, it could spell some pretty rough times ahead, some pretty volatile times ahead, for the Lira itself. So it’s something certainly to watch.

And that concludes our short forecast on the US dollar to the Turkish Lira. We hope to see you in the next podcast. Go check out our website signal-interrupt.com. Definitely sign up for our newsletter so you don’t miss a show, and we will see you on the next Signal Interrupt Podcast.

Show Notes

  • 00:41 Viewer K's Favorite FOREX Pairs
  • 01:55 Turkish Lira Background
  • 03:23 USDTRY RV Forecast
  • 04:49 Erdogan's New Economic Powers

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